Vanadium at a Crossroads: Why This Critical Metal May Soon Spark Investor FOMO

At the Future Facing Metals Conference in Singapore, Terry Perles—President of TTP Squared and arguably vanadium's most seasoned market whisperer—delivered a compelling take on why this oft-overlooked metal might just be on the cusp of a long-awaited comeback.

Having spent over 30 years tracking the peaks and troughs of vanadium pricing and usage trends, Perles offered a rare, clear-eyed view into a market sitting squarely at a crossroads—one where geopolitics, grid instability, and battery tech are converging to rewrite the demand equation.

The Price is Wrong… For Now

Vanadium prices today are scraping the bottom of the barrel. “Vanadium prices have only been lower three months out of the last 20 years than what we’re seeing right now,” Perles said. The culprit? China’s beleaguered property sector. Steel rebar, which is used in Chinese construction, represents roughly half of global vanadium consumption. With property development stalling, demand from this sector has nosedived.

But while the present looks grim, the future is starting to glow with a distinctly vanadium-red hue.

The Quiet Revolution in Grid Storage

The real action is in energy storage. Vanadium redox flow batteries (VRFBs), a technology that's been simmering for years, are finally heating up. As more renewable energy hits the grid—solar by day, wind by whim—the need for stable, long-duration storage is becoming acute.

“These vanadium flow batteries are the ideal technology to allow for the integration of renewable power into the grid,” said Perles. Unlike lithium-ion, VRFBs don’t degrade with deep discharges, can last for decades, and are scalable from buildings to entire cities.

While China is leading the charge—both figuratively and literally—on VRFB deployment, the technology is gaining traction in the US, Europe, and even for data centre backup systems. In California, nearly 50% of grid electricity is already renewable, and vanadium is quietly becoming the hero keeping the lights on when the sun doesn’t shine.

A Sleeping Giant in Supply

Despite its critical applications, vanadium has struggled to lure serious investment. “There’s a lot of potential projects that have been out there for a long time, struggling frankly to draw capital,” Perles admitted. But the turning point may not be far off. Excess inventory is dwindling, and Perles expects the market to start tightening by mid-2025, possibly triggering renewed investor interest.

And here's the kicker—there’s actually more vanadium in the ground globally than lithium, nickel, cobalt, or manganese. The issue isn’t geological scarcity; it’s the economic trigger to get projects off the bench and into production.

Beyond the Battery: EVs and Aerospace in the Mix

Vanadium isn’t just a one-trick pony. It’s used in jet engine alloys, industrial catalysts, and now it's elbowing into the lithium-ion battery scene. Research shows that adding vanadium to battery electrodes boosts energy density and slashes charging time—two of the most stubborn hurdles in the EV space. “Instead of an hour, it takes 10 minutes to charge the batteries,” Perles noted. That alone could rewrite the economics of electric transport.

The Geopolitical Squeeze

As with most critical minerals, vanadium is entangled in geopolitics. Today, China and Russia control 80% of global production, with South Africa pushing the total to around 95%. Not an ideal spread, particularly when geopolitical tensions are already causing anxiety in battery supply chains.

Governments in the US, Canada, and Australia are taking notice. With energy security becoming synonymous with national security, expect to see more state-backed efforts to cultivate local vanadium supply. “There’s going to be some support directed by governments… to really support local production,” Perles said.

The Final Word

Vanadium may have spent years as a steel-strengthening sidekick, but its time in the spotlight could be imminent. With a unique profile that bridges energy storage, electric mobility, and geopolitical strategy, it’s one of the few materials that’s critical across multiple future-facing industries.

For investors, the message is simple: keep an eye on vanadium. The tide might be low now, but the next wave looks like it could be a big one.